Six months into the conflict in Gaza, the absence of a clear exit strategy for Israel highlights the complexity and challenges inherent in the situation.
The conflict in Gaza has persisted for six months, leading to growing discontent among Israel’s allies due to a lack of progress. The increasing death toll and Israel’s unclear strategy for resolving the conflict and addressing its aftermath are becoming increasingly evident.
Israel’s determination to continue targeting Hamas in Gaza, despite the devastating humanitarian consequences, is resulting in increased isolation on the global stage. The Israeli government is facing pressure from various sources.
Numerous international organizations have cautioned that Israel may be committing acts of genocide, and even its closest allies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are openly criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There is a mounting call to cease arms shipments to Israel.
Internally, Netanyahu and his government are encountering mounting pressure, with large-scale protests demanding his resignation.
The conflict was initiated by Israel in response to deadly terrorist attacks by Hamas on October 7. The Israeli government declared that the operation aimed to eliminate Hamas and secure the release of hostages held in Gaza.
However, after six months, neither objective has been achieved.
While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have eliminated thousands of Hamas fighters, many of their top leaders, including Yayha Sinwar, remain at large, and Hamas’ political leaders are inaccessible. Although a truce agreement with Hamas in late November resulted in the release of over 100 hostages, approximately 130 hostages, with 99 believed to be still alive, are still held in Gaza.
The impact on Palestinians has been catastrophic, with the Gaza Ministry of Health reporting that over 33,000 people, including thousands of children, have been killed since October 7. Additionally, more than 75,000 individuals have been injured, and over a million are at risk of starvation, facing an imminent famine according to international organizations.
Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow and director of the Program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs at the Middle East Institute, remarked, “The conflict has far surpassed everyone’s expectations in terms of duration, intensity, scale, and fatality rate, with no apparent end in sight.”
Despite calls for a change in approach, Netanyahu refuses to alter his position. While he pledged to increase assistance to Gaza under pressure from US President Joe Biden, he has rejected pleas for a humanitarian ceasefire and reassessment of the plan to invade Rafah, a city in southern Gaza where over a million people are seeking refuge.Elgindy emphasized the lack of a viable plan for Gaza’s future, even in the immediate term, stating, “Nobody knows when or how this war is going to end.” There is an absence of an exit strategy. Multiple experts told CNN that Israel faces an insurmountable predicament because its objective of eliminating Hamas is unattainable and lacks domestic support. Hamas has governed Gaza since 2007, controlling all sectors including healthcare, education, and security.
Nathan Thrall, an expert on the Arab-Israeli conflict and author, has stated that Israel’s objective cannot be accomplished due to Hamas’s deep roots in Palestinian society. He even noted that Hamas has recently gained popularity, making their elimination even more improbable.
Thrall explained that despite claiming success against Hamas in the northern region, Israeli soldiers continue to lose their lives, illustrating the organization’s resilience and strength on the ground.
Consequently, Israeli leaders find themselves without viable options to end the conflict. They can either indefinitely occupy Gaza, although this choice lacks support among Israelis, or withdraw and allow Hamas to become the dominant force.
According to Elgindy, the notion of destroying Hamas was never realistic and is viewed as imprudent by many American officials. He cautioned that even if Hamas were eradicated, the long-term consequences would be worse, with thousands of casualties and orphans who would develop a deeply negative perception of Israel and the United States.
Prior to the October 7 attacks, Israel was politically divided due to extensive protests against Netanyahu’s government. However, despite international criticism, a majority of Israelis support the war in Gaza due to trauma and a desire for retaliation following the attacks.
Elgindy acknowledged the understandable mindset of Israelis but urged against allowing it to influence international policy. He stressed the need for responsible individuals to intervene and declare that using starvation as a weapon is unacceptable, stating that the Israeli public’s inclination to prolong the war is irrelevant. It must be imposed upon them.
The number of Israeli soldiers killed in combat in Gaza has now surpassed 250 since the start of the war. Although smaller in comparison to the Palestinian death toll, these losses are still significant. On October 7, Hamas claimed the lives of over 1,200 people.
The attached image, taken on October 11, 2023, displays an aerial view of buildings destroyed by Israeli air strikes in the Jabalya camp for Palestinian refugees in Gaza City.
No plan for the future
Harel Chorev, a senior researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, explained to CNN that Israel’s lack of a concrete plan is straining its relations with allies. He mentioned that countries such as America, Britain, Germany, and France are losing trust in the Israeli government’s ability to handle the situation and have a strategic plan for the future.
In late February, Netanyahu presented his plan for Gaza’s post-Hamas future. The plan included the demilitarization of Gaza, closing the southern border with Egypt, and making changes to Gaza’s civil administration and education systems. However, key players at the negotiating table, including the US, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, opposed many of these proposals.
Chorev commented that the plan was vague and open to interpretation, which displeased allies. Additionally, HA Hellyer, a senior associate fellow in security studies at RUSI and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, mentioned that Israel refuses to consider alternative proposals for Gaza’s future. He pointed out that the main obstacle is Israel’s insistence on maintaining full security control over the entire territory, making it difficult for any devolution of authority to occur.
Netanyahu has also rejected the idea of the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza, although his February plan did not explicitly mention this possibility. Instead, the plan mentions the involvement of “local entities” in running the civil service, but Chorev noted that this was intentionally left vague and could be interpreted in different ways.
Experts warn that without a clear plan, the outcome is likely to be an indefinite Israeli military presence, a breakdown of law and order, and continued chaos in Gaza. They stress that this situation is not sustainable and cannot provide security and safety for Israelis. According to experts, proposals to establish temporary international security control over Gaza are not feasible due to Israel’s stance. The experts argue that for such proposals to work, Israel would need to acknowledge that it is an occupying power and should withdraw from Gaza, in line with the majority of the international community. Instead, Israel continues to claim security control over the territory, which violates international law. The experts suggest that a solution similar to the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Kosovo, known as KFOR, could be considered. This would involve an international force acting as a transition until Palestinians can take over responsibility for Gaza. However, the experts note that this option would require significant pressure on Israel, which is currently not apparent. They also point out that even if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to resign, it is unlikely that any potential replacement would have significantly different plans for Gaza. Benny Gantz, who is considered a likely successor, is a member of Netanyahu’s war government and shares similar ideas for the future of Israel, Palestine, and Palestinian sovereignty. In summary, the experts emphasize that the central issue regarding the Palestinians does not depend on who is in power in Israel.
News Source:CNN.com