On Saturday night, the final UFC event of 2023 features two major title fights. Welterweight champion Leon Edwards is set to defend his belt against Colby Covington, a two-time former title challenger. Additionally, Alexandre Pantoja will attempt to make the first defense of his flyweight title in a rematch with Brandon Royval. These significant matchups will headline UFC 296 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Covington has eagerly awaited this third chance for a while. His most recent fight was back in April 2022, where he secured a victory against Jorge Masvidal, who wasn’t performing at his peak. Covington had to be patient due to two previous losses to former champ Kamaru Usman in title attempts. Now, he’s getting another opportunity at the championship against the fighter who defeated Usman for the title and had a challenging bout against him earlier this year.
Welterweight champion Leon Edwards, boasting a record of 21 wins and 3 losses, is gearing up to defend his title against the third-ranked Colby Covington in the main event. Covington, nicknamed “Chaos,” has participated in two title fights, losing both to Kamaru Usman and winning one against Rafael dos Anjos in June 2018. However, he later lost the interim welterweight title due to injury.
Edwards surprised everyone by securing the title with a late head-kick knockout against Usman in August 2022. Despite Usman defeating Edwards in their previous encounter in 2015 when they were both welterweight contenders, Edwards proved his championship win was no accident. In their recent rubber match at UFC 286 earlier this year, Edwards emerged victorious with a unanimous decision.
Currently, Edwards is the favorite with -150 odds at BetMGM, while Covington stands at +125. Betting on Edwards to win by decision carries +150 odds, and for Covington winning by decision, it’s +225.
In the co-main event, the flyweight championship is up for grabs as champion Alexandre Pantoja takes on Brandon Royval in a rematch from their August 2021 bout. Pantoja secured victory in the last match by submitting Royval with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
On the main card, there’s an exciting welterweight clash between the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov and the seasoned veteran Stephen Thompson. Additionally, a lightweight showdown features former interim champion Tony Ferguson facing off against the emerging contender Paddy Pimblett. The pay-per-view card kicks off with a featherweight bout between Josh Emmett and Bryce Mitchell, a short-notice fight due to Emmett’s original opponent, Giga Chikadze, withdrawing due to a groin injury in training.
Saturday night promises lots of excitement with plenty of fights. Before we share our staff predictions and picks for the main event, let’s check out the complete fight card along with the latest odds.
Edwards vs. Covington
While Covington excels at gaining top position and wearing down opponents with his relentless cardio, it’s essential to consider his prolonged absence (21 months) and advancing age (turning 36 in February). Expectations suggest Covington will put up a strong fight, and the match should be competitive. Nevertheless, Edwards is known for avoiding significant mistakes and boasts a well-rounded skill set to handle whatever Covington brings. Despite Covington’s attempt to intimidate Edwards at the press conference by insulting his late father, it’s more likely that this tactic backfires, resulting in a stoppage defeat for Covington.
Covington’s title shot is debatable. He’s known for losing to Kamaru Usman twice and defeating three retired fighters. While he has strong wrestling, his gameplan is well-known. Edwards, having faced Usman twice, has improved his takedown defense and ability to get back up. The champion is ready for Covington’s style. Though it won’t be easy and the fight will be competitive, Edwards is likely to secure a decision victory by landing the more impactful strikes.
Setting aside the theatrics and talk, Covington remains a challenging matchup for many in the division. Despite facing defeat twice against Kamaru Usman, a tough opponent, Covington’s style poses difficulties. Edwards also had challenges against Usman’s wrestling, and some suggest he may have found ways to escape takedowns. Covington’s stifling approach is likely to cause problems; the real question is whether he can score points from those top positions against someone like Edwards, who excels in standup.
Pantoja vs. Royval
Two fighters, Brandon Royval and Alexandre Pantoja, are gearing up for a rematch. Pantoja emerged victorious in their previous encounter two years ago. Since then, Royval has adopted a more technical approach, while Pantoja has become the champion with a four-fight win streak. The upcoming bout promises excitement, and Royval stands a chance at victory if he maintains a strategic approach and avoids errors throughout the five rounds. The unpredictable nature of MMA fights adds to the anticipation of the outcome.
The key question for Royval in the upcoming match is how he can secure a victory. Pantoja proves to be a formidable opponent, displaying resilience, exceptional endurance, and proficiency on the ground. There’s uncertainty about Royval’s improvement since their last encounter, especially given Pantoja’s track record of success against top-tier opponents like Brandon Moreno. The outlook doesn’t favor Royval, and it appears likely that Pantoja will successfully defend his title on Saturday night.
While Royval has shown improvement since his defeat to Pantoja in August 2021, the champion has also advanced. Both fighters thrive in chaotic situations, but Pantoja demonstrates superior execution. He boasts higher accuracy in striking, more dependable defense against takedowns, and has faced more formidable competition overall. Pantoja’s recent Fight of the Night victory over Moreno, while impressive, raises concerns about accumulated damage. Despite potential limitations to Pantoja’s long-term reign, it seems he has the capability to repel Royval’s challenge.